Monday, January 5, 2015

on posting here, and on the week ended Jan 3rd

it wasn't a bad week to dispense with our full economic coverage, as there were few reports of note...probably the most widely watched of those was the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for October, the home page of which links to this pdf with the detailed report and tables...the best coverage of Case-Shiller on the web was from Bill McBride, with the following two posts, which include several graphs: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.6% year-over-year in October, followed by his analysis in House Prices: Better Seasonal Adjustment; Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in October….for a quick summary of the 20 city price index changes, the WSJ has an interactive table included here: A Look at Case-Shiller by Metro Area...the other hard data release was the Census report on Construction Spending for November (pdf) which estimated construction spending fell by 0.3%; that was after a 1.1% increase in October, so 4th quarter construction spending is still growing at a 5.9% annual rate vis-a-vis the 3rd quarter...this pdf report includes tables listing types and amounts of various public and private construction...

there were also three diffusion indexes released this week: the December Texas area manufacturing survey from the Dallas FedChicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for December from the ISM-Chicago (pdf), and the December Manufacturing Report On Business and national PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)...diffusion indexes are calculated from surveys of business management wherein responses indicating business growth add 1 to the index or subindex, and responses indicating contraction either subtract from the index or aren't counted, such that indexes over zero or fifty mean a plurality of those surveyed indicated growth, while lower or negative numbers indicate a majority of responses were negative...

our elimination of the full coverage of weekly economic reports does not preclude the possibility that a report will be surprising or unusual enough to take at detailed look at here; i just want to dispense with the weekly regurgitating of every number that appears in a government or other widely watched release...for those who still need their weekly economic data fix, we would suggest the Research Economics page at OneWall.com; although there's no accompanying commentary, this page includes several paragraphs from each of the above reports, as well as a few reports we've rarely noted, such as a the weekly ICSC Chan Store Sales report and this week's Pending Home Salas index from the National Association of Realtors, all updated daily....for visualization of most of that, Doug Short has graphs of most of the important reports, but since his RSS feed hasn't been working regularly over the past few weeks, we'll point you to catch his latest updates on each report on his advisor's perspectives index page: http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/index.php ... 

i'm not sure what will fill this space yet but it seems likely that i'll at least in part revert to commenting on any economic policy charges that appear newsworthy; to that end we'll be watching the first actions of the new Republican congress, which apparently will being by replacing Doug Elmendorf, the current Republican director of the Congressional Budget Office, because he believes in arithmetic...you see, one job of the Congressional budget office is to "score" each bill that Congress proposes, or determine how much it will cost and how they'll pay for it...normally, the annual deficit predicted by the CBO is computed by estimating government spending and subtracting the expected revenues from taxes, and hence what normally happens when Congress cuts taxes is that the CBO would expect that the deficit would increase because revenues would fall...the incoming Republicans intend to install a Budget Office chief who'll initiate "dynamic scoring" of proposed tax cuts; what that means is that instead of government revenues falling when taxes are cut, the new CBO will assume that tax cuts will generate so much economic activity (ie, from the rich buying yachts with the largess and hence employing yacht builders who'll pay taxes) that revenues would actually increase, and hence the deficit would shrink...so, we'll try to keep track of this funny arithmetic and let you know how it works out...

as i mentioned in last week’s email, i am also writing about US and world gas & oil production & the oil price war that was started by OPEC in late November as it relates to US horizontal fracturing, ie, fracking, and also including some news on the movement opposing fracking, and posting that on a blog i started early December: Focus on Fracking....like what i've written here, that posting starts out as a Sunday morning newsletter that is emailed to my county's no-fracking google group, as well as to a few environmental journalists, wherein my synopsis precedes one of several unedited link collections that i'm now sending out on Sunday mornings...although i will be posting those newsletters online at Focus on Fracking each Sunday evening, it would be easy enough for me to include a BCC mailing list to my morning mailing of that collection, which is usually emailed within an hour or two after i mail these selected links...so if anyone wants to receive that "fracking" newsletter via email on Sunday mornings, write me at my gmail address, where you can also write me with any questions on any of the economic reports that i've covered here in the past, ask me to remove you from this mailing, or just about anything else...

(the above is the synopsis that accompanied my regular sunday morning links emailing, which in turn was mostly selected from my weekly blog post on the global glass onion…if you’d be interested in receiving my weekly emailing of selected links, most from the aforementioned GGO posts, contact me…)

No comments:

Post a Comment