Sunday, July 26, 2015

June’s new and existing home sales, state jobs report, et al

the only widely covered reports released this week were on June existing home sales, released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Wednesday, and on June new home sales, from the Census Bureau on Friday; we also saw the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary for June, an annual revision to the Fed's G17 on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for June, a weighted composite index of 85 different economic metrics, constructed such that a zero value indicates economic growth at the historical trend rate; the June reading on the CFNAI rose to +0.08 in June, up from –0.08 in May, which left the 3 month average at –0.01, indicating national economic activity has stayed close to its historical trend...the week also saw the release of the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for July, covering a region that includes western Missouri, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming and northern New Mexico, and which reported its broadest composite index rose to -7 in July, up from -9 in June and -13 in May, still indicating a ongoing regional contraction, mostly in the energy industry..

June Existing Home Sales at Post Recession Sales & Price Records

the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing home sales rose a seasonally adjusted 3.2% in June, projecting that 5.49 million homes would sell over an entire year if June sales were extrapolated over that year, a rate 9.6% higher than the annual rate projected in June of a year ago, and the greatest pace of existing home sales since February 2007…the annual rate of May home sales was revised from 5.35 million to 5.32 million....the NAR also says that the median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $236,400, which was up 6.5% from a year earlier and the highest median sales price in their records, topping the July 2006 peak for the first time in the recovery...the NAR press release, which is titled Existing-Home Sales Rise in June as Home Prices Surpass July 2006 Peak, is in easy to read plain English, so there's no point in our rewriting what they already clearly  report; note though, that first time home buyers as a percentage of total sales slipped back to 30%, still well below the 40% pre-housing bust norm...

since this report is entirely seasonally adjusted and at a fairly meaningless annual rate, we'll take a look at the raw data overview (pdf), which shows that 573,000 homes actually sold in June, up 15.8% from 495,000 in May (which was revised from 497,000) and up 13.2% from the 506,000 homes that sold in June last year...the June sales increase was consistent across all NAR regions, ranging from an increase of 14.2% to 129,000 home sales in the West to a 16.8% increase to 146,000 home sales in the Midwest....that same pdf indicates that the median home selling price for all housing types rose from a revised $228,900 in May to $236,400 in June, while the average home sales price was $280,300, up 2.7% from the $273,000 average in May, and up 4.6% from the $268,100 average home sales price of June a year ago, with the regional averages ranging from a low of $223,300 in the Midwest to a high of $360,600 in the West...for additional coverage with long term graphs on this report, see Existing Home Sales Up 3.2% As Prices Soar To Record Highs by Robert Oak at The Economic Populist, and the two posts by Bill McBride: Existing Home Sales in June: 5.49 million SAAR, Highest Pace in Eight Years and A Few Random Comments on June Existing Home Sales..

New Home Sales Remain Above Last Year's Trend

the Census report on New Residential Sales for June (pdf) estimated that new single family homes were selling at a seasonally adjusted rate of 482,000 new home sales a year, which was 6.8 percent (±12.5%)* below the revised May rate of 517,000 new single family homes a year, but still 18.1 percent (±18.1%)  above the annual rate that new homes were selling at in June of last year....as you know, the asterisks indicate that based on their small sampling, Census could not be certain whether June new home sales rose or fell from those of May, and the figures in parenthesis represent the 90% confidence range for reported data in  this report, which has the largest margin of error and subject to the largest revisions of any census construction series...in keeping with that, sales new single family homes in May were revised from the annual rate of 546,000 reported last month to 517,000 a year with this report, the annual rate of April sales was revised from 534,000 to 523,000, and the annual rate of March new home sales was revised from 494,000 to 485,000...

the annual rates of sales reported here are extrapolated from seasonally adjusted estimates of Census field reps which showed that approximately 45,000 new homes sold in June, down from 48,000 new homes sold in May, which was revised from the 51,000 reported last month....the estimate for unadjusted April home sales was revised from 51,000 to 50,000, while the estimate for March sales was revised from 47,000 to 46,000....the raw samples from Census field agents further estimated that the median sales price of new houses sold was $281,800, up from $280,500 in May, which was originally reported as $282,800, while the average sales price was $328,700, down from $335,900 in May, as the number of homes selling for more than $300,000 fell by ~2,000.... a seasonally adjusted estimate of 215,000 new houses remained for sale at the end of June, which represents a 5.4 month supply of new homes at the June sales rate...for more details and graphics on this report, see Robert Oak's New Home Sales Plunge -6.8% for June with 6 FRED graphs and Bill McBride's two posts, New Home Sales decreased to 482,000 Annual Rate in June and Comments on New Home Sales..

June State and Regional Employment Report

the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary for June expands on the national employment situation summary of three weeks ago by breaking down the state and regional details...as with most BLS reports, the press release is very readable & self explanatory, with BLS referring to appropriate tables linked to at the bottom of the press release wherever relevant, and with tables and coverage of 50 states, it's more thorough than we can meaningfully restate....the BLS table corresponding to household survey data,  including the seasonally adjusted count of the unemployed and the unemployment rate for each state, is here....for graphics on that, Bill McBride graphs current and historical unemployment rates for the 50 states here: BLS: Twenty-One States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in June....for a breakdown of payroll employment by job type for each state over the past 3 months, and the change in employment since last April, see the following two BLS tables accompanying this release: Table 5. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by state and selected industry sector, seasonally adjusted and Table 6. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by state and selected industry sector, not seasonally adjusted ...the latter two tables are very detailed, giving you both actual and seasonally adjusted totals for jobs in each state and the District of Columbia in several categories, including construction, manufacturing, trade, transportation and utilities, financial, professional and business services, education and health services, leisure and hospitality and government....


(the above is the synopsis that accompanied my regular sunday morning links emailing, which in turn was mostly selected from my weekly blog post on the global glass onion…if you’d be interested in receiving my weekly emailing of selected links, most from the aforementioned GGO posts, contact me…)

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