Monday, July 18, 2016

June’s retail, consumer & producer prices, & industrial production; May’s wholesale & business inventories, JOLTS, & Mortgage Monitor

most of this week's important reports were released on Friday morning, including Retail Sales for June and Business Sales and Inventories for May, both from the Census bureau, the June Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the report on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for June from the Fed...before those, Thursday saw the the June Producer Price Index from the BLS, while earlier in week the BLS also released the June Import-Export Price Index, and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May, while the Census Bureau released the May report on Wholesale Trade, Sales and Inventories leading up to the composite business inventories report of Friday...the week also saw the Mortgage Monitor for May (pdf) from Black Knight Financial Services and the Empire State July Manufacturing Survey from the New York Fed, which covers New York and northern New Jersey, and which reported their headline general business conditions index fell from + 6.0 to +0.6, suggesting First District manufacturing was little changed from last month...

June Retail Sales up 0.6% After May Revised 0.3% Lower

seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.6% in June after retail sales for April and May were revised lower....the Advance Retail Sales Report for June (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that our seasonally adjusted retail and food services sales totaled $457.0 billion during  the month, which was an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5%)* from May's revised sales of $454.4 billion and 2.7 percent (±0.7%) above the adjusted sales in June of last year...May's seasonally adjusted sales were revised from the $455.6 billion originally reported to $454.4 billion, while April sales were also revised lower, from $453.6 billion, to $453.4 billion, with this release....estimated unadjusted sales, extrapolated from surveys of a small sampling of retailers, indicated sales actually fell 1.5%, from $469,523 million in May to $462,314 million in June, while they were up 3.1% from the $448,229 million of sales in June a year ago...

included below is the table of the monthly and yearly percentage changes in sales by business type taken from the Census pdf....the first pair of columns below gives us the seasonally adjusted percentage change in sales for each type of retail business from May to June and the year over year percentage change for those businesses since last June; the second pair of columns gives us the revised figures for May's report, with April to May and the May 2015 to May 2016 change shown; for your reference, our copy of this same table as it appeared in the May report, before this month's revisions, is here....lastly, the third pair of columns shows the percentage change of the recent 3 months of sales (April, May and June) from the preceding three months (January, February and March) and from the same three months of a year ago....

June 2016 retail table

June Consumer Prices Up 0.2% on Higher Energy Prices, Rents

the consumer price index rose 0.1% in June, as price increases for fuels and core services were partially offset by lower prices for food and core commodities...the Consumer Price Index Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that seasonally adjusted prices rose 0.2% in June after rising 0.2% in May, 0.4% in April and 0.1% in March....the unadjusted CPI-U, which was set with prices of the 1982 to 1984 period equal to 100, rose from 240.236 in May to 241.038 in June, which left it statistically 1.01% higher than the 238.638 index reading of last June....regionally, prices for urban consumers have risen 1.6% in the West, and 0.8% everywhere else over the past year, with generally greater price increases within regions in cities of more than 1,500,000 people...with lower food prices mostly offsetting higher energy prices, seasonally adjusted core prices, which exclude food and energy, also rose by 0.2% for the month, with the unadjusted core index rising from 247.554 to 247.821, which puts it 2.26% ahead of its year ago reading of 242.354...

the volatile seasonally adjusted energy price index rose by 1.3% in June after rising by 1.2% in May and 3.4% in April but falling by more than 11.5% over this past winter, and thus the energy price index still remains 9.4% lower than it was in June a year ago....prices for energy commodities were 3.3% higher while the index for energy services fell by 0.5%, after rising by 0.2% in May....the increase in the energy commodity index included a 3.3% increase in the price of gasoline, the largest component, and a 3.3% increase in the price of fuel oil, while prices for other fuels, including propane, kerosene and firewood, averaged a 2.5% increase…within energy services, the index for utility gas service fell by 0.4% after rising by 1.7% in May, as utility gas was still priced 5.0% lower than it was a year ago, while the electricity price index fell by 0.5%, after falling by 0.2% in May...energy commodities are still priced 15.3% below their year ago levels, with gasoline prices averaging 16.4% lower than they were a year ago...meanwhile, the energy services price index is 2.5% lower than last June, as even electricity prices have fallen 1.8% over that period..

the seasonally adjusted food price index fell 0.2% in June, after it fell by 0.2% in May, as prices for food purchased for use at home fell 0.3% while prices for food away from home rose 0.2%, as average prices at fast food outlets rose 0.1% while average prices at full service restaurants rose 0.2%...for food at home, all major grocery store food group price indexes declined except for the price index for cereals and bakery products, which was 0.1% higher on a 0.5% increase in prices for white bread....the price index for the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs group fell by 0.7% as prices for eggs fell 5.7%, poultry prices fell 0.9%, and beef prices averaged 0.8% lower....the index for dairy products was 0.3% lower, as milk prices fell 1.0% and cheese prices fell 0.7%... the fruits and vegetables index fell 0.1% in June after falling by 0.7% in May and 0.5% in April as a 0.2% decrease in prices for fresh vegetables, including a 2.4% drop in lettuce prices, were offset by 0.3% higher prices for processed fruits and vegetables...the beverages index was 0.7% lower on a 1.5% decrease in prices for frozen noncarbonated juices and drinks and a 1.9% drop in prices for non-coffee beverage materials including tea.. lastly, prices in the other foods at home category were on average unchanged as 2.8% higher prices for margarine offset a 3.3% drop in prices for peanut butter.....among food line items, only eggs, which are now priced 26.9% lower than a year ago, and ground beef, which has fallen by 10.5%, have seen a price change greater than 10% over the past year...the itemized list for price changes in over 100 separate food items is included at the beginning of Table 2, which gives us a line item breakdown for prices of more than 200 CPI items overall...

among the seasonally adjusted core components of the CPI, which rose by 0.2% in June after rising by 0.2% in April and May, the composite of all goods less food and energy goods fell by 0.2%, while the composite for all services less energy services was 0.3% higher....among the goods components, which will be used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to adjust May retail sales for inflation in national accounts data, the index for household furnishings and supplies fell by 0.3% on a 1.1% decrease in prices for major appliances, the apparel price index was 0.4% lower, and prices for transportation commodities other than fuel were down 0.5%, as prices for used cars and trucks were down 1.1% after falling 1.3% in May...at the same time, prices for medical care commodities were 1.1% higher on a 1.3% increase in prescription drug prices...meanwhile, the recreational commodities index fell 0.9% as TV prices fell another 2.7%, and the education and communication commodities index was 0.1% lower as a 2.0% price drop for telephone hardware offset a 1.9% increase in prices for educational books and supplies...lastly a separate index for alcoholic beverages rose 0.1% on a 0.8% increase in prices for whiskey bought for use at home, while the index for ‘other goods’ was unchanged. 

within core services, the price index for shelter rose 0.3% on a 0.4% increase in rents and a 0.3% increase in owner's equivalent rent while costs for lodging away from home at hotels and motels rose 0.6%, and costs for water, sewers and trash collection were 0.2% higher....the index for medical care services rose 0.2% as physicians' services rose 0.3%, the transportation services index rose 0.3% on a 3.4% increase in car and truck rentals...meanwhile, the recreation services index rose 0.6% as video & audio rental services rose 1.9% and admissions to sporting events rose 3.3%... at the same time, the index for education and communication services rose 0.1% as a 0.6% decrease in landline telephone services was offset by 0.5% higher college tuition...lastly, other personal services were up 0.4% on a 1.3% increase in tax return preparation and other accounting fees and a 0.6% increase in legal fees...among core prices, a 13.0% increase in ship fares and a 12.1% year over year increase in moving and storage expenses were the only line items with annual increases greater than 10%, while only televisions, which are now 19.5% cheaper than a year ago, saw prices drop by more than 10% over the past year...

Estimating the Change in Real June Retail Sales Using the June CPI

with this June CPI release, we can now attempt to estimate the economic impact of the June retail sales figures we covered earlier, which saw nominal sales rise 0.6%...for the most accurate estimate, and the way the BEA will be figuring 2nd quarter GDP at the end of July, we would have to take each type of retail sales and adjust it with the appropriate change in price to determine real sales; for instance, June’s clothing store sales, which fell by 1.0% in dollars, should be adjusted with the price index for apparel, which indicated prices for clothing were down by 0.4%, which tells us that real retail sales of clothing were actually down by 0.6% in June.  Then, to get a GDP relevant quarterly change, we'd have to compare such adjusted real clothing sales for April, May and June with the similarly adjusted real clothing consumption for the 3 months of the first quarter (January, February and March), and then repeat that process for each other type of retailer, obviously quite a tedious task to undertake manually.  The short cut we usually take to get a quick and dirty estimate of the change in real sales for the month is to apply the composite price index of all commodities less food and energy commodities, which was down 0.2%, to retail sales less grocery, gas station, and restaurant sales, which accounts for nearly 70% of aggregate retail sales.  those sales were up by more than 0.5% in June, while their composite price index was down 0.2%, meaning that real retail sales excluding food and energy sales were up by more than 0.7%.  then, for the rest of the retail aggregate, we find sales at grocery stores were up 0.3% in June, while prices for food at home were down 0.3%, suggesting a real increase of around 0.6% in the quantity of food purchased for the month.  Next, sales at bars and restaurants were down 0.3% in dollars, but those dollars also bought 0.2% less, so real sales at bars and restaurants were down by about 0.5%.  And while gas station sales were up 1.2%, gasoline prices were up 3.3%, suggesting a substantial real decrease in the amount of gasoline sold, with the caveat that gas stations sell more than gasoline, and we don't have the detailed info on that.  Weighing the food and energy components at roughly 30% of total retail sales, and core sales at 70%, we can estimate that the aggregate of real retail sales in June were up about 0.6% from those of May…

next, to see how the change in real June sales impacts the change in 2nd quarter GDP, we have to compare those June sales to those of the first quarter...however, to get an approximation of the real adjusted changes for June vis a vis the 3 months of the first quarter, we have to adjust the changes for the downward revision to April and May sales that were included in the June report; ie., with May sales revised downward by roughly 0.3%, that means June real sales are only up by about 0.4% from previously published figures...using Table 7 in the pdf for the May personal income and outlays report, which gives us already inflation adjusted changes for the prior months, we find that real sales of goods were up 0.1% in February, up 0.3% in March, 1.5% in April, and 0.6% in May...since the downward revision to May's growth was 0.278%, and the downward revision to April's growth was less than half a percent, a 0.3% revision to May will suffice for our estimate....that revision leaves our revised month over month real sales growth at 0.1% in February, 0.3% in March, 1.5% in April, 0.3% in May, and 0.6% in June...that works out to more than 1.7% real growth in retail sales from the first quarter to the 2nd....in national accounts terms, that's real growth in consumption of goods at an annual rate of almost 7.0%, a pace that will add at approximately 1.66 (+/-0.10) percentage points to 2nd quarter GDP from the goods portion of personal consumption expenditures alone..

Industrial Production Up 0.6% in June on Hot Weather and Jump in Auto Output

the Fed's G17 release on Industrial production and Capacity Utilization indicated that industrial production rose by 0.6% in June after falling by a revised 0.3% in May...industrial production is still down 0.7% from a year ago, as it fell at a 1.0% annual rate in the 2nd quarter, the 3rd consecutive quarterly decrease...to the extent that this report plays into GDP, that quarterly drop suggests a net subtraction from GDP of that magnitude in the components that this report influences...the industrial production index, with the benchmark now set for average 2012 production to equal to 100.0, rose to 104.1 in June from 103.5 in May, which was originally reported at 103.6...at the same time, the April reading for the index was revised down from 104.0 to 103.8...

the manufacturing index, which accounts for more than 77% of the total IP index, increased by 0.4, from 102.8 in May to 103.2 in June, largely due to a 6.3% increase in motor vehicle assemblies, more than reversing the May decrease, and returning the year over year change in the manufacturing index to a positive 0.4%.... meanwhile, the mining index, which includes oil and gas well drilling, saw its second increase in a row, as it rose from 102.5 in May to 102.7 in June, although it remains 10.5% lower than it was a year ago....finally, the utility index, which often fluctuates due to above or below normal temperatures, rose 2.4% in June after falling a revised 0.9% in May, as warmer weather than is typical for June boosted use of air conditioning and brought the utility index back to 0.5% above its year earlier reading...

this report also includes capacity utilization figures, which are expressed as the percentage of our plant and equipment that was in use during the month, and which indicated that seasonally adjusted capacity utilization for total industry rose to 75.4 in June from 74.9% in May....capacity utilization by NAICS durable goods production facilities rose from 75.5% in May to 76.1 in June, while capacity utilization for non-durables slipped from 74.9% to 74.8%....capacity utilization for the mining sector rose to 73.6% in June, up from 73.2% in May, which was originally reported as 73.1%, while utilities were operating at 73.1% of capacity during June, up from their 77.5% of capacity during May...for more details on capacity utilization by type of manufacturer, see Table 7: Capacity Utilization: Manufacturing, Mining, and Utilities, which shows the historical capacity utilization figures for a dozen types of durable goods manufacturers, 8 classifications of non-durable manufacturers, mining, utilities, and capacity utilization for a handful of other special categories....   

Producer Prices Rise 0.5% in June on Higher Energy Prices and Retail Margins

the seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand increased by 0.5% in June as prices for finished wholesale goods rose by 0.8%, while margins of final services providers rose by 0.4%...this followed a May report that showed the overall PPI had increased 0.4%, with prices for finished goods up 0.7% while final demand for services rose 0.2%....producer prices are now up 0.3% from a year ago, the largest year over year increase since December 2014, as most of the price decreases relating to lower oil and commodity prices were seen in early 2015...

as we noted, the index for final demand for goods, aka 'finished goods', was up 0.8% in June, after rising by 0.7% in May and 0.2% in April, as the index for wholesale energy prices rose 4.1% from May to June, the price index for wholesale foods was 0.9% higher, while the index for final demand for core wholesale goods (ex food and energy) was unchanged...major wholesale price changes included a 17.0% increase for home heating oil, and a 9.9% increase in prices for gasoline, which alone accounted for half of the rise in the wholesale goods index...despite the rise in wholesale foods overall, wholesale eggs were 25.9% lower, for the largest decrease in this final demand for goods category...

meanwhile, the index for final demand for services rose by 0.4% in June after rising 0.2% in May, 0.1% in April and falling 0.2% in March, as the index for final demand for trade services rose 0.7%, the index for final demand for transportation and warehousing services rose 0.5%, and the core services index for final demand for services less trade, transportation, and warehousing services was 0.4% higher....noteworthy among trade services, seasonally adjusted margins for fuels and lubricants retailers were 22.8% higher, margins for major household appliances retailers were 17.3% higher, and margins TV, video, and photographic equipment and supplies retailers were 13.6% higher....among transportation and warehousing services, margins for airline passenger services rose 2.4%...in the core final demand services index, margins for cable and satellite subscriber services rose 3.0% and margins for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services were 3.6% higher..

this report also showed the price index for processed goods for intermediate demand increased by 0.9%, after rising 0.8% in May and 0.3% in April but falling in each of the prior nine months, as intermediate processed goods prices still remain 4.1% lower than in June a year ago.... the price index for processed foods and feeds rose 1.7%, prices for intermediate energy goods rose by 4.0% while the price index for processed goods for intermediate demand less food and energy was 0.2% higher...meanwhile, the price index for intermediate unprocessed goods was up by 2.8% in June after rising by 1.3% in May, 2.6% in April and 1.9% in March, in the only increases in that index since June of last year...driving that May increase was a 8.5% increase in the index for crude energy goods, while the index for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs rose 0.4%, and the index for core raw materials other than food and energy materials was 0.3% lower.... this raw materials index is now 11.4% lower than it was a year ago, as more than half of the year over year decrease of 26.4% seen in November has now been retraced...

lastly, the price index for services for intermediate demand was 0.8% higher in June after falling 0.2 in May and rising 0.1% in April, on a 0.8% increase in the core price index for services less trade, transportation, and warehousing for intermediate demand and a 1.1% increase in the index for trade services for intermediate demand, while the index for transportation and warehousing services for intermediate demand was 0.4% higher...driving the increase in prices for services for intermediate demand was a 1.7% decrease in the index for loans services (partial) and higher indexes for services related to securities brokerage and dealing; machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling...over the 12 months ended in May, the year over year price index for services for intermediate demand, which has never turned negative, is now 1.6% higher than it was a year ago...    
May Wholesale Inventories up 0.1%, Total Business Inventories Up 0.2%

in advance of the composite business inventories release on Friday, the Census released their report on Wholesale Trade, Sales and Inventories for May (pdf) on Tuesday, which indicated that seasonally adjusted sales of wholesale merchants rose 0.5 percent (+/-0.5%)* to $435.5 billion from the revised April estimate of $433.2 billion, but were still down 2.5 percent (+/-1.1%) from May a year earlier...April's preliminary wholesale sales estimate was revised downward $1.0 billion or 0.2 percent....May sales of durable goods were up 0.6 percent (+/-0.7%) from April, but were down 0.6 percent (+/-1.6%) from a year earlier, while sales of nondurable goods were up 0.5 percent (+/-0.5%) from April, but were down 4.1 percent (+/-1.8%) from last May...at the same time, this release reported that seasonally adjusted wholesale inventories were valued at $589.2 billion at the end of May, 0.1% (+/-0.2%)* higher than the revised April level and 0.5 percent (+/-1.2%)* above last May's level, while April's preliminary inventory estimate was revised upward $0.5 billion or 0.1%...wholesale durable goods inventories were up 0.1 percent (+/-0.4%)* from April but were down 2.3 percent (+/-1.2%) from a year ago, while inventories of nondurable goods were up 0.2 percent (+/-0.2%) from April and were up 5.1 percent (+/-1.6%) from last May...

then on Friday, following the release of the June retail sales report, the Census Bureau released the composite Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report for May (pdf), which incorporates the revised May retail data from that June report and the earlier published wholesale and factory data to give us a complete picture of the business contribution to the economy for that month....according to the Census Bureau, total manufacturer's and trade sales were estimated to be valued at a seasonally adjusted $1,291.8 billion in May, up 0.2 percent (±0.2%)* from April revised sales, but down 1.4 percent (±0.4%) from May sales of a year earlier...note that total April sales were revised from the originally reported $1,290.2 billion to $1,288,674 million....manufacturer's sales were statistically unchanged from April at $456,524 million in May, while retail trade sales, which exclude restaurant & bar sales from the revised April retail sales reported earlier, rose 0.2% to $399,837 million, and wholesale sales rose 0.5% to $435,473 million...

meanwhile, total manufacturer's and trade inventories, a major component of GDP, were estimated to be valued at a seasonally adjusted $1,810.0 billion at the end of May, up 0.2 percent (±0.1%) from April, and 1.0 percent (±0.5%) higher than in May a year earlier...the value of end of April inventories was revised down slightly from the $1,807.1 billion reported last month to $1,807.0 billion...seasonally adjusted inventories of manufacturers were estimated to be valued at $619,676 million, 0.1% lower than in April, inventories of retailers were valued at $601,151 million, 0.5% more than in April, while inventories of wholesalers were estimated to be valued at $589,154 million at the end of May, up 0.1% from April...all categories of business inventories are adjusted for price changes for national accounts data using item appropriate price indexes from the producer price index...since May producer prices for goods averaged a 0.7% increase, real business inventories for the month will thus be lower than April by about 0.5%, which itself was lower than at the end of the 1st quarter by an average of 0.1%...unless there is an inordinate build of inventories in June, the change from the $69.6 billion real inventory increase we saw in the 1st quarter could subtract as much as 2.00 percentage points from second quarter GDP... 

Job Openings, Hiring and Firing All Down in May

the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for May from the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that seasonally adjusted job openings fell by 345,000, from 5,845,000 in April to 5,500,000 in May, after April job openings were revised higher, from 5,788,000 to 5,845,000...May jobs openings were still 2.1% higher than the 5,384,000 job openings reported in May a year ago, as the job opening ratio expressed as a percentage of the employed fell from 3.9% in April to 3.7% in May, while it was unchanged from a year ago...the greatest drop in job openings was in wholesale trade, where openings fell by 104,000 to 151,000, while job openings in professional and business services rose by 60,000 to 1,021,000 (see table 1 for more details)...like most BLS releases, the press release for report is easy to understand and also refers us to the associated table for the data cited, which are linked at the end of the release...

the JOLTS release also reports on labor turnover, which consists of hires and job separations, which in turn is further divided into layoffs and discharges, those who quit, and 'other separations', which includes retirements and deaths....in May, seasonally adjusted new hires totaled 5,036,000, down by 49,000 from the revised 5,085,000 who were hired or rehired in April, as the hiring rate as a percentage of all employed was unchanged at 3.5%, but also down from the hiring rate of 3.6% in May a year earlier (details of hiring by industry since January are in table 2)....meanwhile, total separations also fell, by 63,000, from 5,015,000 in March to 4,952,000 in May, while the separations rate as a percentage of the employed slipped from 3.5% to 3.4%, which was the same separations rate as in May a year ago (see table 3)...subtracting the 4,952,000 total separations from the total hires of 5,036,000 would imply an increase of 84,000 jobs in May, somewhat more than the revised payroll job increase of 11,000 for May reported by the June establishment survey last week, but still not an unusual difference and within the expected +/-115,000 margin of error in these incomplete samplings... 

breaking down the seasonally adjusted job separations, the BLS finds that 2,895,000 of us voluntarily quit their jobs in May, down by 14,000 from the revised 2,909,000 who quit their jobs in April, while the quits rate, widely watched as an indicator of worker confidence, was unchanged at 2.0% of total employment, which was still up from 1.9% a year earlier (see details in table 4)....in addition to those who quit, another 1,667,000 were either laid off, fired or otherwise discharged in May, down by 41,000 from the revised 1,708,000 who were discharged in April, as the discharges rate remained at 1.2% of all those who were employed during the month, the same as a year earlier....meanwhile, other separations, which includes retirements and deaths, were at 390,000 in May, down from 398,000 in April, for an 'other separations' rate of 0.3%, which was unchanged....both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted details by industry and by region on hires and job separations, and on job quits and discharges can be accessed using the links to tables at the bottom of the press release...

Mortgage Delinquencies and New Foreclosures Up in May, Mean Time in Foreclosure At Record 1092 Days

the Mortgage Monitor for May (pdf) from Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS, formerly LPS) reported that there were 574,035 home mortgages, or 1.13% of all mortgages outstanding, remaining in the foreclosure process at the end of May, which was down from 595,235, or 1.17% of all active loans, that were in foreclosure at the end of April, and down from 1.59% of all mortgages that were in foreclosure in May of last year.....these are homeowners who at least had a foreclosure notice served but whose homes had not yet been seized, and the May "foreclosure inventory" now represents the lowest percentage of homes that were in the foreclosure process since the summer of 2007... new foreclosure starts, which have been volatile from month to month, rose to 62,085 in May from 58,728 in April but were down from 70,400 in May a year ago; new foreclosures over the past three months have been on a par with the level before the mortgage crisis began...

in addition to homes in foreclosure, BKFS data also showed that 2,152,935 mortgages, or 4.25% of all mortgage loans, were at least one mortgage payment overdue but not in foreclosure at the end of May, up from the 4.24% of homeowners with a mortgage who were more than 30 days behind in April, but down from the mortgage delinquency rate of 4.51% in May a year earlier...of those who were delinquent in May, 719,283 home owners, or 1.42% of those with a mortgage, were more than 90 days behind on mortgage payments, but still not in foreclosure at the end of the month, which was down from 730,179 such "seriously delinquent" mortgages in April...combining the total number of delinquent mortgages with those in foreclosure, we find that a total of 2,726,970 mortgage loans, or 5.38% of homeowners with a mortgage, were either late in paying or in foreclosure at the end of May, and that 1,293,318, or 2.55% of all homeowners, were in serious trouble, ie, either "seriously delinquent" or already in foreclosure at month end...

for the details of the historical mortgage crisis metrics covered by the Mortgage Monitor, we're including below that part of the monthly table showing the monthly count of active home mortgage loans and their delinquency status, which comes from page 16 of the pdf, which for some reason they made harder to read than it already was....the columns in the table below show the total active mortgage loan count nationally for each month given, number of mortgages that were delinquent by more than 90 days but not yet in foreclosure, the monthly count of those mortgages that are in the foreclosure process (FC), the total non-current mortgages, including those that just missed one or two payments, and then the number of foreclosure starts for each month over the past 5 months and for each January shown going back to January 2005…in the last two columns, we see the average length of time that those who have been more than 90 days delinquent have remained in their homes without foreclosure, and then the average number of days those in foreclosure have been stuck in that process because of the lengthy foreclosure pipelines…with the pickup in new foreclosures, the average length of delinquency for those who have been more than 90 days delinquent without foreclosure has slipped back to 519 days and is still down from the April 2015 record of 536 days, while the average time of delinquency for those who’ve been in foreclosure without a resolution has increased again and at 1092 days has again topped the record set last month…that means that the average homeowner who is in foreclosure now has been there roughly three years, which, considering that this year's new foreclosure starts were all less than 5 months old, suggests that many foreclosures started early in the crisis are still not yet completed…  

May 2016 LPS loan counts and days delinquent table

(the above is the synopsis that accompanied my regular sunday morning links emailing, which in turn was mostly selected from my weekly blog post on the global glass onion…if you’d be interested in receiving my weekly emailing of selected links, most from the aforementioned GGO posts, contact me…)       

No comments:

Post a Comment