Sunday, July 23, 2017

June New Housing Construction, etal

the June report on New Residential Construction from the Census Bureau was the only major monthly economic release of this week...the week also saw the release of the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment for June from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the first two regional Fed manufacturing indexes for July: the Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the New York Fed, which covers New York and northern New Jersey, saw their headline general business conditions index fall from + 19.8 in June to +9.8 in July, suggesting somewhat slower expansion of First District manufacturing, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, covering most of Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware, which reported its broadest diffusion index of manufacturing conditions fell from +27.6 in June to +19.5 in July, still suggesting an ongoing strong expansion of that region's manufacturing...

New Housing Construction, Permits Reportedly Up in June

the June report on New Residential Construction (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that the widely watched count of new housing units started in June was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,215,000, which was 8.3 percent (±15.8 percent)* above the revised May estimated annual rate of 1,122,000 units started, and 2.1 percent (±14.0 percent)* above last June's pace of 1,213,000 housing starts a year...the asterisks indicate that the Census does not have sufficient data to determine whether housing starts actually rose or fell over the past month or even over the past year, with the figure in parenthesis the most likely range of the change indicated; in other words, June's housing starts could have been down by 7.5% or up by as much as 23.1% from those of May, with even larger revisions possible...in this report, the annual rate for May housing starts was revised from the 1,092,000 reported last month up to 1,122,000, while April starts, which were first reported at a 1,172,000 annual rate, were revised down from last month's initial revised figure of 1,056,000 annually to 1,154,000 annually with this report....those annual rates of starts reported here were extrapolated from a survey of a small percentage of US building permit offices visited by Census field agents, which estimated that 116,800 housing units were started in June, up from the 105,100 units started in May and 105,200 starts in April...of those housing units started in June, an estimated 83,100 were single family homes and 33,100 were units in structures with more than 5 units, up from the revised 77,300 single family starts but down from the 26,700 units started in structures with more than 5 units in May...

the monthly data on new building permits, with a smaller margin of error, are probably a better monthly indicator of new housing construction trends than the volatile and broadly revised housing starts data...in June, Census estimated new building permits were being issued for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,254,000 housing units, which was 7.4 percent (±1.1 percent) above the revised May rate of 1,168,000 permits, and 5.1 percent (±1.4 percent) above the rate of building permit issuance in June a year earlier...the "revised" annual rate for housing permits issued in May was the same as was reported last month....again, these annual estimates for new permits reported here were extrapolated from the unadjusted estimates collected by canvassing census agents, which showed permits for 125,400 housing units were issued in June, up from the revised estimate of 113,000 new permits issued in May...the June permits included 81,700 permits for single family homes, up from 78.300 in May, and 40,200 permits for housing units in apartment buildings with 5 or more units, up from 31,300 such multifamily permits a month earlier... for graphs and commentary on this report, see the following two posts by Bill McBride at Calculated Risk: Housing Starts increased to 1.215 Million Annual Rate in June and Comments on June Housing Starts...

 

(the above is the synopsis that accompanied my regular sunday morning links emailing, which in turn was mostly selected from my weekly blog post on the global glass onion…if you’d be interested in receiving my weekly emailing of selected links, most from the aforementioned GGO posts, contact me…)

1 comment:

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