Sunday, December 30, 2018

Government Shutdown Interrupts Light Holiday Release Schedule

With the major month end reports already released last week, the only widely watched agency report that was scheduled for this week was the Census report on New Residential Sales for November; however, with the government shut down by a dispute over funding for Trump's Mexican border wall, Census employees have been temporarily furloughed and therefore that report was not released...however, since the Federal Reserve is independent and self-funded, the release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for November, a weighted composite index of 85 different economic metrics, was released this week, and indicated that the CFNAI increased to +0.22 in November from a neutral reading of 0.00 in October, which was revised from the +0.24 indicated for October a month ago....with that revision, the 3 month average of the CFNAI index fell to +0.12 in November, from a revised +0.23 in October, which still indicates that national economic activity continues at a pace slightly above the historical trend over recent months....

This week also saw the private release of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October from S&P Case-Shiller, which doesn’t even include homes prices, but just a index generated by averaging relative home sales prices of homes that sold in August, September and October against the sales prices of the same homes when they sold during prior 3 month periods going back to January 2000...thus the Case-Shiller report indicated that their national home price index for those 3 months averaged 5.5% higher than it did for the same homes that sold during the same 3 month period a year earlier, unchanged from the year over year index increase shown in the prior report... in addition, this week also saw the release of the Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity, covering an area that includes  Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and West Virginia, which reported its broadest composite index fell to -8 in December from +14 in November, indicating the first contraction of Fifth District manufacturing since October 2016...

 

(the above is the synopsis that accompanied my regular sunday morning links emailing, which in turn was mostly selected from my weekly blog post on the global glass onion…if you’d be interested in receiving my weekly emailing of selected links, most picked from the aforementioned GGO posts, contact me…)      

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