Major economic reports released this past week were the July Consumer Price Index, the July Producer Price Index, the July Import-Export Price Index, and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June, all of which came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics...in addition, there was a Fed release from last Friday that i neglected to mention last week: the Consumer Credit Report for June, which indicated that overall consumer credit, a measure of non-real estate debt, expanded by a seasonally adjusted $37.6 billion, or at a 10.6% annual rate, as non-revolving credit expanded at a 7.2% rate to $3,326.4 billion while revolving credit outstanding grew at a 22.0% rate to $992.2 billion, the fastest revolving credit growth since January 2006...for the second quarter as a whole, consumer credit grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, as revolving credit grew at an annual rate of 10.7%, while non-revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8.3%..
CPI Rose 0.5% in July on Higher Prices for Food, Energy, New Vehicles and Lodging
The consumer price index rose 0.5% in July, as higher prices for food, energy, new vehicles, and lodging at hotels and motels and were only slightly offset by lower prices for car and truck rentals, vehicle insurance and health insurance...the Consumer Price Index Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that seasonally adjusted prices averaged 0.5% higher in July, after rising by 0.9% in June, by 0.6% in May, by 0.8% in April. by 0.6% in March, 0.4% in February, 0.3% in January, 0.2% in December, 0.2% in November, 0.1% in October, 0.2% in September, 0.4% in August, and by 0.5% last July....the unadjusted CPI-U index, which was set with prices of the 1982 to 1984 period equal to 100, rose from 271.696 in June to 273.003 in July, which left it statistically 5.3655% higher than the 259.101 index reading of June of last year, which is reported as a 5.4% year over year increase, essentially unchanged from the year over year increase reported a month ago...with food and energy prices leading the rise the overall index increase, seasonally adjusted core prices, which exclude food and energy, were up by just 0.3% for the month, as the unadjusted core price index rose from 278.218 to 279.146, which left the core index 4.2745% ahead of its year ago reading of 267.703, which is reported as a 4.3% year over year increase, down from the 4.5% year over year core price increase that was reported for June, which had been the largest year over year core price index increase since November 1991...
The volatile seasonally adjusted energy price index rose 1.6% in July, after rising 1.5% in June, being unchanged in May, falling by 0.1% in April, rising by 5.0% in March, by 3.9% in February, by 3.5% in January, by 2.6% in December, 0.7% in November, 0.6% in October, 1.4% in September, 0.9% in August, and by 2.1% last July, and hence is now 23.8% higher than in July a year ago....the price index for energy commodities was 2.3% higher in July, while the index for energy services was 0.8% higher, after rising 0.2% in June....the energy commodity index was up 2.3% on a 2.4% increase in the price of gasoline and a 0.6% increase in the price index for fuel oil, while prices for other energy commodities, including propane, kerosene, and firewood, were on average 2.5% higher...within energy services, the price index for utility gas service rose 2.2% after rising 1.7% in June and is now 19.0% higher than it was a year ago, while the electricity price index rose 0.4% in July after falling 0.3% in June....energy commodities are now averaging 41.2% higher than their year ago levels, with gasoline prices averaging 41.8% higher than they were a year ago, while the energy services price index is now up 7.2% from last July, as electricity prices are now 4.0% higher than a year ago…
The seasonally adjusted food price index rose 0.7% in July, after rising by 0.8% in June, by 0.4% in May, by 0.4% in April, by 0.1% in March, by 0.2% in February, by 0.1% in January and by 0.3% in December, after being unchanged in November, rising 0.2% in October, rising 0.1% in August and in September, but after falling 0.3% last July, as the price index for food purchased for use at home was 0.7% higher in July, after rising 0.8% in June, while the index for food bought to eat away from home was 0.8% higher, as average prices at fast food outlets rose 1.0% and prices at full service restaurants rose 0.6%, while food prices from vending machines and mobile vendors averaged 0.3% higher...
In the food at home categories, the price index for cereals and bakery products was 1.2% higher, as average bread prices rose 0.1%, the price index for crackers and bread and cracker products rose 3.7%, the price index for cookies rose 1.9% and the price index for fresh sweetrolls, coffeecakes, doughnuts rose 2.8%....at the same time, the price index for the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs food group was 1.5% higher, as the price index for beef and veal rose 1.2%, the price index for poultry rose 1.9%, and the price index for fish and seafood rose 2.0%....in addition, the seasonally adjusted price index for dairy products was 0.6% higher, as milk prices rose 0.9% and the price index for ice cream and related products was 1.8% higher...on the other hand, the fruits and vegetables price index was 0.9% lower, as the price index for fresh fruits fell 1.8% and the price index for fresh vegetables fell 0.8%...meanwhile, the beverages price index was 0.7% higher, as the price index for carbonated drinks rose 1.4% and the price index for noncarbonated juices and drinks rose 1.0%, while coffee prices were 0.6% lower....lastly, the price index for the ‘other foods at home’ category rose 0.8%, as the price index for prepared salads rose 4.1%, the price index for fats and oils other than butter and margarine but including peanut butter rose 2.2%, the price index for frozen and freeze dried prepared foods rose 1.5%, and the price index for snack foods was 1.1% higher...the itemized list for price changes of over 100 separate food itemsis included at the beginning of Table 2 for this release, which also gives us a line item breakdown for prices of more than 200 CPI items overall...since last July, the price index for uncooked beef steaks is up 10.7%, the price index for "other pork including roasts, steaks, and ribs is up 13.7%, while there are no food line items showing a price drop greater than 10% over the past year...
Among the seasonally adjusted core components of the CPI, which rose 0.3% in July after rising by 0.9% in June, by 0.7% in May, 0.9% in April, 0.3% in March, 0.1% in February, being unchanged in January and December, after rising by 0.2% in November, by 0.1% in October, by 0.2% in September, by 0.3% in August, by 0.5% in July of last year, the composite price index of all goods less food and energy goods was 0.5% higher in June, while the more heavily weighted composite for all services less energy services was 0.3% higher....
Among the goods components, which will be used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to adjust July retail sales for inflation in national accounts data, the price index for household furnishings and supplies was 0.1% higher, as the price index for bedroom furniture rose 1.6%, the price index for major appliances rose 0.9%, and the price index for housekeeping supplies rose 1.1%, while the price index for window and floor coverings fell 1.4%... meanwhile, the apparel price index was unchanged as a 5.5% increase in the price index for women's dresses and a 2.9% increase in the price index for men's suits, sport coats, and outerwear were offset by a 2.6% decrease in the price index for women's outerwear and a 3.4% decrease in the price index for boys' and girls' footwear...however, the price index for transportation commodities other than fuel rose another 1.0%, after rising 5.6% in June, 4.0% in May and 4.3% in April, as prices for new cars were 1.8% higher, prices for new trucks were 1.6% higher, prices for used cars and trucks rose by 0.2%, the price index for motor oil, coolant, and fluids rose 1.6%, and the price index for vehicle accessories other than tires was also 1.6% higher... at the same time, the price index for medical care commodities was 0.2% higher even as prescription drug prices fell 0.1%, as nonprescription drug prices rose 0.6%, and the price index for medical equipment and supplies rose 0.1%...at the same time, the recreational commodities index was 0.5% higher on a 1.6% increase in TV prices, a 3.1% increase in the price index for pets, pet supplies, accessories, and a 1.0% increase in the price index for newspapers and magazines...in addition, the education and communication commodities index was 0.8% higher on a 1.2% increase in the price index for computers, peripherals, and smart home assistants and a 0.7% increase in the price index for college textbooks….lastly, a separate price index for alcoholic beverages was 0.3% higher, while the price index for ‘other goods’ was 0.2% higher on a 0.5% increase in the price of cigarettes and a 0.7% increase in the price index for hair, dental, shaving, and miscellaneous personal care products...
Within core services, the price index for shelter was 0.4% higher as rents rose 0.4%, homeowner's equivalent rent was 0.3% higher, and prices for lodging away from home at hotels and motels rose 6.8%, while at the same time the shelter sub-index for water, sewers and trash collection rose 0.5%, and other household operation costs were on average 0.2% higher.....at the same time, the price index for medical care services was 0.3% higher as dental services rose 0.5% and the price index for inpatient hospital services rose 0.6% while the price index for health insurance fell 0.6%....on the other hand, the transportation services price index was 1.1% lower, as the price index for car and truck rentals fell 4.6%, the price index for vehicle insurance fell 2.8%, airline fares fell 0.1% and the price index for other intercity transportation fell 2.0%...meanwhile, the recreation services price index rose 0.6% as the price index for cable and satellite television service rose 0.5%, the price index for admission to movies, theaters, and concerts rose 1.7%, and the price index for admission to sporting events rose 1.3%.... at the same time, the index for education and communication services was 0.1% higher as the price index for land-line telephone services rose 0.4%, the price index for day care and preschool rose 0.5%, and the price index for delivery services rose 1.0%...lastly, the index for other personal services was 1.2% higher as the price index for haircuts and other personal care services was 2.2% higher, the price index for laundry and dry cleaning services was 1.0% higher and the price index for tax return preparation and other accounting fees rose 1.1%...
Among core line items, the price index for car and truck rental, which is still 73.5% hihger than a year ago, the price index for used car and trucks, which is still up 41.7% from a year ago, the price index for airline fares, which is still up 19.0% since last July, the price index for other intercity transportation, which is up 11.4% over the same span, the price index for men's pants and shorts, which is now up 11.2% from a year ago, the price index for women's dresses, which has risen by 18.8% over the past year, the price index for jewelry, which is up by 10.1% since last July, the price index for lodging away from home including at hotels and motels, which has now risen 24.1% from a year ago, the price index for domestic services, which has risen 11.0% year over year, the price index for moving, storage, freight expense, which is up by 13.3% over the last 12 months, the price index for laundry equipment, which is up 17.9% from last July, have all seen prices rise by more than 10% over the past year, while the price index for telephone hardware, calculators, and other consumer information items, which is now down by 16.6% since last July, is the only core line item to have decreased in price by a double digit magnitude over that one year span....
July Producer Price Index Sets New YoY Records for Final Demand Goods, Final Demand Services, and Intermediate Services; and a 46 year High for Prices of Intermediate Goods
The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 1.0% in July, as prices for finished wholesale goods rose 0.6% while margins of final services providers rose 1.1%...that increase followed a June report that also had the PPI 1.0% higher, but with prices for finished wholesale goods 1.2% higher while margins of final services providers rose 0.8%, a May report that the PPI had risen 0.8%, as prices for finished wholesale goods rose 1.5% while margins of final services providers rose 0.6%, a now revised April report that the PPI was 0.7% higher, as prices for finished wholesale goods rose 0.6% while margins of final services providers rose by 0.9%, and a rerevised March report that has the PPI 0.8% higher, as prices for finished wholesale goods rose 1.5% while margins of final services providers rose 0.3%...on an unadjusted basis, producer prices are now a record 7.8% higher than a year ago, up from the 7.2% year over year increase reported for June's producer prices, while the core producer price index, which excludes food, energy and trade services, rose by 0.9% for the month, and is now 6.1% higher than in July a year ago, up from the 5.5% year over year increase that was shown in June...
As noted, the price index for final demand for goods, aka 'finished goods', was 0.6% higher in July, after being 1.2% higher in June, 1.5% higher in May, 0.6% higher in April, 1.5% higher in March, 1.6% higher in February, 1.6% higher in January, 0.9% higher in December, 0.4% higher in November, 0.5% higher in October, 0.4% higher in September, 0.4% higher in August, 0.5% higher in July, and 0.4% higher in June of last year, and hence is now up by a record 11.9% from a year ago....the finished goods price index rose 0.6% in July even though the price index for wholesale foods fell 2.1%, after rising by 0.8% in June, 2.6% in May, by 2.0% in April, by 0.6% in March, by 1.4% in February, and by 1.6% in January, and as the price index for wholesale energy goods was 2.6% higher, after it had risen 2.2% in May, fallen by 2.4% in April, risen by 5.9% in March, by 5.8% in February, and by 5.1% in January....meanwhile, the index for final demand for core wholesale goods (excluding food and energy) was 1.0% higher, after it had risen by 1.0% in June, 1.1% in May, by 1.0% in April, by 0.9% in March, by 0.3% in February and by 0.8% in January....wholesale energy prices averaged 2.6% higher due to a 6.2% increase in wholesale prices for gasoline, a 7.2% increase in wholesale prices for home heating oil, and a 14.2% increase in wholesale prices for LP gas, while the wholesale food price index fell 2.1% on a 11.6% decrease in the wholesale price index for beef and veal, an 8.1% decrease in the wholesale price index for pork, and a 4.4% decrease in wholesale price index for fresh fruits and melons...among core wholesale goods, the wholesale price index for tires rose 3.7%, the wholesale price index for tobacco products rose 2.7%, the wholesale price index for mining machinery and equipment rose 5.5%, the wholesale price index for household appliances rose 2.9%, and the wholesale price index for pumps, compressors, and related equipment rose 2.1%...
At the same time, the index for final demand for services rose 1.1% in July, after rising 0.6% in June, 0.6% in May, a revised 0.7% in April, a revised 0.3% in March, 0.3% in February and 1.0% in January, and is now up by a record 5.8% from a year ago, as the index for final demand for trade services rose 1.7%, the index for final demand for transportation and warehousing services rose 2.7%, and the core index for final demand for services less trade, transportation, and warehousing services was 0.6% higher... among trade services, seasonally adjusted margins for automobile retailers rose 17.4% for the second straight month, margins for TV, video, and photographic equipment and supplies retailers rose 13.3%, margins for furnishings wholesalers rose 4.9%, and margins for RVs, trailers, and campers retailers rose 6.0%, while margins for fuels and lubricants retailers fell 3.2%...among transportation and warehousing services, average margins for truck transportation of freight rose 0.6% and margins for airline passenger services rose 9.1%...among the components of the core final demand for services index, the index for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services rose 6.2%, margins for hospital outpatient care rose 2.3%, the price index for arrangement of cruises and tours rose 10.4%, the price index for traveler accommodation services rose 6.2%, and the price index for gaming receipts (partial) rose 6.4%, while index for application software publishing fell 3.4% …
This report also showed the price index for intermediate processed goods rose 1.7% in July, after rising 1.9% in June, 2.8% in May, 1.6% in April, a revised 3.5% in March, 2.9% in February, and 1.8% in January, 1.4% in December, 0.9% in November, 0.9% in October, 0.6% in September, 0.9% in August, and 1.4% in July of last year... the price index for intermediate energy goods rose 4.0% in July, as refinery prices for jet fuel rose 6.2%, refinery prices for gasoline rose 6.2%, producer prices for LP gas rose 14.2%, and producer prices for natural gas to electric utilities rose 24.3%, while producer prices for industrial natural gas fell 2.6%... meanwhile, the price index for intermediate processed foods and feeds fell 1.6%, as the producer price index for meats fell 7.6%, the producer price index for processed poultry fell 7.1%, and the producer price index for refined sugar and byproducts fell 1.8%...at the same time, the core price index for intermediate processed goods less food and energy rose 1.6% as the producer price index for cold rolled steel sheet and strip rose 22.9%, the producer price index for steel mill products rose 10.8%, the producer price index for metal containers rose 4.6%, the producer price index for plastic construction products rose 4.5%, the producer price index for wiring devices rose 4.8%, the producer price index for nitrogenates rose 7.5%, the producer price index for phosphates rose 8.0%, and the producer price index for building paper and board rose 6.7%, while the price of softwood lumber fell 29.0%...average prices for intermediate processed goods are now 22.9% higher than in June a year ago, the largest year over year price increase since the year ended February 1975, but just the eighth increase after 19 consecutive year over year decreases, which had followed 29 months of year over year increases, which had been preceded by 16 months of negative year over year comparisons, as prices for intermediate goods fell every month from July 2015 through March 2016....
Meanwhile, the price index for intermediate unprocessed goods rose 1.4% in July, after rising 2.6% in June, 8.4% in May, and a revised 1.0% in April, after falling a revised 4.2% in March and after rising 11.9% in February, and rising by 5.3% in January, 2.1% in December, by 6.3% in November, 1.3% in October, 5.2% in September, 4.0% in August, and by 0.6% last July....that was as the June price index for crude energy goods rose 6.5% as crude oil prices rose 3.0%, unprocessed natural gas prices rose 13.5%, and coal prices rose 0.6%, while the price index for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs fell 2.5% on an 8.2% decrease in producer prices for slaughter hogs, a 4.8% decrease in producer prices for corn, a 5.1% decrease in producer prices for oilseeds, an 8.1% decrease in producer prices for alfalfa hay, and a 5.5% decrease in producer prices for raw milk....at the same time, the index for core raw materials other than food and energy materials was unchanged, even as the price index for iron ore rose 16.5% and the price index for recyclable paper rose 21.9%.. this raw materials index is now 55.0% higher than a year ago, which is actually down from the 57.9% year over year increase recorded in May, but just the ninth year over year increase after the annual change on this index had been negative from the beginning of 2019 through October of last year...
Lastly, the price index for services for intermediate demand rose 1.0% in July, after rising 1.1% in June, 0.8% in May, a revised 0.6% in April, a revised 0.6% in March, 0.3% in February, and rising 1.1% in January, and 0.7% in December 2020, after being unchanged in November, rising 0.7% in October, rising 1.1% in September, 0.8% in August, and 0.5% last July….the price index for intermediate trade services was 2.1% higher, as margins for intermediate machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesalers rose 4.6%, margins for intermediate metals, minerals, and ores wholesalers rose 5.2%, and margins for intermediate building materials, paint, and hardware wholesalers rose 1.4%...meanwhile, the index for transportation and warehousing services for intermediate demand was 0.6% higher, as the intermediate price index for transportation of passengers rose 9.0%, the intermediate price index for air mail and package delivery services, excluding by USPS, rose 1.4%, and the intermediate price index for warehousing, storage, and related services rose 1.0%....at the same time, the core price index for intermediate services other than trade, transportation, and warehousing services rose 0.7%, as the intermediate price index for internet advertising space sales, excluding internet ads sold by print publishers rose 8.6%, the intermediate price index for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services rose 6.2%, the intermediate price index for nonresidential real estate rents rose 2.2%, the intermediate price index for business loans (partial) rose 2.8%, and the intermediate price index for traveler accommodation services rose 6.2%, while the intermediate price index for passenger car rental fell 2.8%...over the 12 months ended in June, the year over year price index for services for intermediate demand is now 9.2% higher than it was a year ago, the tenth consecutive positive annual change since it briefly turned negative year over year from April to August of last year, and the largest 12-month advance in the eleven year history of this index..
June Job Openings at Record High after May Record Revised Higher; Record Low Layoffs; Hiring, Quitting, Retiring All Much Higher
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for June from the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that seasonally adjusted job openings rose by 590,000, from 9,483,000 in May to 10,073,000 in June, after May's job openings were revised 274,000 higher, from 9,209,000 to 9,483,000...June jobs openings were also 64.8% higher than the 6,112,000 job openings reported in June a year ago, as the job opening ratio expressed as a percentage of the employed rose from 6.1% in May to 6,5% in June, and was up from the 4.2% rate of June a year ago...the greatest jump in June job openings was in professional and business services, where openings rose by 227,000 to 1,789,000, while job openings in finance and insurance fell by 37,000 to 252,000 (see table 1 for details on other categories of job openings)...like most BLS releases, the press release for report is easy to understand and also refers us to the associated table for the data cited, which are linked at the end of the release...
The JOLTS release also reports on labor turnover, which consists of hires and job separations, which in turn is further divided into layoffs and discharges, those who quit, and 'other separations', which includes retirements and deaths....in June, seasonally adjusted new hires totaled 6,719,000, up by 697,000 from the revised 6,022,000 who were hired or rehired in May, as the hiring rate as a percentage of all employed rose to 4.6% from 4.2% in May, while it was still lower than the 5.6% hiring rate in June a year earlier (details of hiring by industry since January are in table 2)....meanwhile, total separations increased by 254,000, from 5,330,000 in May to 5,584,000 in June, as the separations rate as a percentage of the employed rose from 3.7% to 3.8%, which was the same as the separations rate of June a year ago (see table 3)...subtracting the 5,584,000 total separations from the total hires of 6,719,000 would imply an increase of 1,135,000 jobs in June, more than the revised payroll job increase of 938,000 for June reported by the July establishment survey last week, with at least some of that difference likely due to the difference in the date of the surveys, which is at month end for this report but is during the week of the 12th for the employment situation report....
Breaking down the seasonally adjusted job separations, the BLS finds that 3,869,000 of us voluntarily quit their jobs in June, up by 239,000 from the revised 3,630,000 who quit their jobs in May, while the 'quits rate', widely watched as an indicator of worker confidence, rose from 2.5% to 2.7% of total employment, which was also up from the 1.9% quits rate of a year earlier (see details in table 4)....in addition to those who quit, a record low of 1,310,000 were either laid off, fired or otherwise discharged in June, down by 43,000 from the revised record low of 1,353,000 who were discharged in May, as the discharges rate remained at a record low 0.9% of all those who were employed during the month, which was down from the discharges rate of 1.6% a year earlier (see table 5)...meanwhile, other separations, which includes retirements and deaths, were at a 53 month high of 405,000 in June, up from 334,000 in May, for an 'other separations rate’ of 0.3%, up from 0.2% in May and in June of last year....both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted details by industry and by region on hires and job separations, and on job quits and discharges can be easily accessed using the links to tables at the bottom of the press release...
(the above is the synopsis that accompanied my regular sunday morning links emailing, which in turn was mostly selected from my weekly blog post on the global glass onion…if you’d be interested in receiving my weekly emailing of selected links, most of which are picked from the aforementioned GGO posts, contact me…)
No comments:
Post a Comment