Sunday, February 27, 2022

4th quarter GDP revision; January’s income and outlays, durable goods, & new home sales

The key economic reports released during the past week were the 2nd estimate of 4th quarter GDP and the January report on Personal Income and Spending, both from the Bureau of Economic Analysis; other widely watched releases included the advance report on durable goods for January and the January report on new home sales, both from the Census bureau....this week also had the release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for January, a weighted composite index of 85 different economic metrics, which rose to +0.69 in January from +0.07 in December, which was revised from the –0.15 reported for December last month... after revisions, the 3 month average of the CFNAI slipped to +0.42 in January from a revised +0.46 in December, which still indicates that national economic activity has been somewhat above the historical trend over recent months...in addition, the week also saw the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December from S&P Case-Shiller, which reported that home prices nationally during October, November and December averaged 18.8% higher than prices for the same homes that sold during the same 3 month period a year earlier, which was the same year over year increase that was reported a month ago for the months of September, October and November...

This week also saw the release of two more regional Fed manufacturing surveys for February: theRichmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity, covering an area that includes Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and West Virginia, reported its broadest composite index fell from +8 in January to +1 in February, suggesting virtual stagnation of that region's manufacturing, while the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for February, covering western Missouri, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming and northern New Mexico, reported its broadest composite index rose to +29 in February, up from +24 in January and +22 in December, suggesting ongoing improvement among that region's manufacturers...

4th Quarter GDP Grew at a 7.0% Rate, Revised from 6.9% in the Advance Estimate

The Second Estimate of our 4th Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services grew at a 7.0% rate in the quarter, revised from the 6.9% growth rate reported in the advance estimate last month, as slower growth of personal consumption of services and of exports than was previously estimated was more than offset by greater growth of personal consumption of goods, fixed investment, and a smaller contraction of government....in current dollars, our fourth quarter GDP grew at a 14.64% annual rate, increasing from what would work out to be a $23,202.3 billion a year output rate in the 3rd quarter to a $24,008.5 annual rate in the 4th quarter, with the headline 7.0% annualized rate of increase in real output arrived at after an annualized aggregate inflation adjustment averaging 7.1%, aka the GDP deflator, was computed from the price changes of the components and applied to their current dollar change....the GDP deflator was revised from 6.9% in the advance estimate to 7.1% with this estimate...

Remember that the second estimate GDP news release reports all quarter over quarter percentage changes at an annual rate, which means that they're expressed as a change typically a bit over 4 times of that what actually occurred over the 3 month period, and that the prefix "real" is used to indicate that each change has been adjusted for inflation using price changes chained from 2012, and then that all percentage changes in this report are calculated from those 2012 dollar figures, which would be better thought of as a quantity indexes than as any reality based dollar amounts....for our purposes, the data that we'll use in reporting the changes here comes directly from the pdf for the 2nd estimate of 4th quarter GDP, which can be accessed directly on the BEA's GDP landing page, which also provides links to the source data, the tables on Excel and other technical notes...specifically, we reference table 1, which shows the real percentage change in each of the GDP components annually and quarterly since the 1st quarter of 2018 table 2, which shows the contribution of each of the components to the GDP figures for those quarters and years; table 3, which shows both the current dollar value and inflation adjusted value of each of the GDP components over the last 5 quarters; and table 4, which shows the change in the price indexes for each of the components...the pdf for the 4th quarter advance estimate, which this estimate revises, is here...

Growth of real personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the largest component of GDP, was revised from 3.3% down to an overall 3.1% growth rate in this 2nd estimate…that growth rate figure was arrived at by deflating the 9.61% growth rate in the dollar amount of consumer spending with the PCE price index, which indicated consumer inflation grew at a 6.3% annual rate in the 4th quarter, and which was revised from the 6.5% PCE inflation rate reported a month ago, which should have accounted for an upward revision to real PCE, were it not for spending figures that were revised that much lower...real consumption of durable goods grew at a 2.7% annual rate, which was revised from the 1.6% growth rate shown in the advance report, and added 0.24 percentage points to GDP, as real growth at a 13.8% rate in consumption of recreational goods and vehicles was partly offset by lower consumption of motor vehicles, furniture and durable household equipment.....in addition, real consumption of nondurable goods by individuals grew at a 0.8% annual rate, revised from the 0.1% contraction rate reported in the 1st estimate, and added 0.13 percentage points to the 4th quarter’s economic growth rate, as lower growth in real consumption of clothing and footwear was more than offset by greater real consumption of gasoline and other non-durable goods...at the same time, consumption of services grew at a 3.9% annual rate, revised from the 4.7% growth rate reported last month, and added 1.76 percentage points to the final GDP tally, as a 5.5% growth rate in real health care services accounted for almost 40% of 4th quarter services growth...

Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted real gross private domestic investment grew at a 33.5% annual rate in the 4th quarter, revised from the original 32.0% growth estimate reported last month, as real private fixed investment grew at a 2.6% rate, revised from the 1.3% growth rate reported in the advance estimate, while inventory growth was little changed from the previous estimate...investment in non-residential structures was revised to indicate contraction at a 9.4% rate, up from the 11.4% contraction rate previously reported, while real investment in equipment grew at 2.4% rate, revised up from the 0.8% growth rate shown a month ago...meanwhile the quarter's investment in intellectual property products remained unrevised at a 10.6% growth rate, while at the same time real residential investment was shown to be growing at a 1.0% annual rate, revised from the 0.8% contraction rate shown in the previous report....after those revisions, the increase in investment in non-residential structures subtracted 0.25 percentage points from the 4th quarter's growth rate, while the increase in investment in equipment added 0.14 percentage points to the quarter's growth rate, growth in investment in intellectual property added 0.53 percentage points to the growth rate of 4th quarter GDP, and growth in residential investment added 0.05 percentage points to the growth of GDP.....for an easy to read table as to what's included in each of those GDP investment categories, see the NIPA Handbook, Chapter 6, page 3.....

At the same time, growth in real private inventories was revised from the originally reported $173.5 billion in inflation adjusted growth to show that inventory grew at an inflation adjusted $171.2 billion rate….that came after inventories had contracted at an inflation adjusted $66.8 billion rate in the 3rd quarter, and hence the $238.0 billion positive change in real inventory growth from the 3rd to the 4th quarter added 4.90 percentage points to the 4th quarter's growth rate, unrevised from the 4.90 percentage point addition to GDP from inventory growth reported in the advance estimate (the lack of revision to that contribution was due to the BEA's forcing the component totals to add up the independently calculated total, analogous to a rounding error)....however, since greater growth of inventories indicates that more of the goods produced during the quarter were left in a warehouse or sitting on the shelf, their increase at a $238.0 billion rate meant that real final sales of GDP were actually smaller by that amount, and hence real final sales of GDP only grew at a 2.0% rate in the 4th quarter, revised from the real final sales 1.9% growth rate shown in the advance estimate, and up from the real final sales growth rate of 0.1% in the 3rd quarter, when inventory growth had accounted for almost all of the quarter's growth in GDP......

The previously reported increase in real exports was revised somewhat lower with this estimate, while the previously reported increase in real imports was revised just a bit lower, so on net the change in our net trade was a small subtraction from GDP, rather than negligible as was previously reported...our real exports grew at a 23.6% rate, revised from the 24.5% rate reported in the first estimate, and since exports are added to GDP because they are part of our production that was not consumed or added to investment in our country, that growth added 2.35 percentage points to the 4th quarter's growth rate, revised from the 2.43 percentage point addition to GDP shown in the previous report....meanwhile, the previously reported 17.7% growth rate in our real imports was revised to a 17.6% growth rate, and since imports are subtracted from GDP because they represent either consumption or investment that was added to an other GDP component that was not produced here, their increase subtracted 2.42 percentage points from 4th quarter GDP, rather than the 2.43 percentage point subtraction shown last month....thus, our deteriorating trade balance subtracted a net of 0.07 percentage points from 4th quarter GDP, revised from the rounded no change that had been indicated by the advance estimate..

Finally, there was also an upward revision to real government consumption and investment in this 2nd estimate, since the real contraction rate for the entire government sector was revised from a 2.9% rate to a 2.6% rate...however, real federal government consumption and investment was seen to have shrunk at a 4.5% rate in this estimate, revised from the 4.0% contraction rate shown in the advance estimate, as real federal outlays for defense shrank at a 6.1% rate, revised from the 5.7% contraction rate shown previously, and subtracted 0.24 percentage points from 4th quarter GDP, while all other federal consumption and investment was revised from a 1.6% contraction rate to contraction at a 2.2% rate, which subtracted 0.06 percentage points from 4th quarter GDP....meanwhile, real state and local consumption and investment was revised from shrinking at a 2.2% rate in the first estimate to shrinking at a 1.6% rate in this estimate, as state and local investment spending shrank at a 7.3% rate and subtracted 0.14 percentage points from 4th quarter GDP, while state and local consumption spending was slightly lower but had a negligible impact on GDP....note that government outlays for social insurance are not included in this government GDP component; rather, they are included within personal consumption expenditures only when such funds are spent on goods or services, thus indicating an increase in the output of those goods or services...

An Additional Note on the Major Revisions to the GDP deflators with this Report

This month's report also included unprecedented major revisions to the percentage changes of the deflators used to adjust the various GDP components for changes in prices...we've already mentioned that the overall change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures was revised from a 6.5% rate in the advance estimate to a 6.3% rate in this month's report; that change was driven by a downward revision of the change in the price index for non-durable goods from an 11.0% rate to one of 9.8%, while the price index change for PCE services was revised from 4.3% to a 4.4% rate....at the same time, the change in the price index for fixed investment was revised from 8.0% to 8.9%; most notable among the revisions of its component indexes was the change in the deflator for residential investment, which was revised from 9.5% to a 12.1% rate...there were also revisions to the deflators for exports and imports; the export deflator was revised from 5.9% to 6.4%, while the import deflator was revised from 5.8% to 5.6%; the effect of those revisions would be to lower real exports while increasing real imports...there were also revisions to the deflators used on government consumption and investment; the overall government outlays deflator went from 7.4% to 7.7%, as the deflator for non-defense federal government outlays was revised from 5.4% to 6.1%...incorporating the effect of all those component deflators meant that the deflator for GDP overall was revised from the the 6.9% rate indicated by the advance estimate to a 7.1% rate with this month's estimate....in the more than half dozen years i've been checking this metric monthly, i've rarely seen deflator revisions greater than ±0.1%...you can view the deflators used in the advance estimate in table 4 here, while the deflators used in this month's estimate are in table 4 here...

normally, we would expect an upward revision in a deflator to result in a corresponding downward revision to its associated real component, and vice-versa, simply because these deflators correspond directly to the chained dollar inflation factor used to convert the change in nominal dollar spending into the change in the real component, thus indicating the change in output of the associated GDP component...that played out for some of the revisions we have noted; for instance, the revision in the deflator for non-durable goods from 11.0% to 9.8% was coincidental with a revision in the real growth of non-durable goods from a 0.1% contraction to growth at an 0.8% rate...on the other hand, the revisions to some deflators seemed to have the opposite effect that one would expect; the revision in the deflator for residential investment from 9.5% to 12.1% coincided with an upward revision to real residential from a contraction at a 0.8% annual rate to growth at a 1.0% rate...

the BEA doesn't give much information on the reason for the unprecedentedly large revision to those deflators; at one point, in addressing the downward revision to the PCE price index change, they mention a downward revision in the consumer price index for gasoline in the technical notes accompanying this month's report (pdf), but gasoline only accounts around 2% of GDP and 3% of PCE, certainly not large enough to move the overall needle 0.2%...for the most part, the deflators used for GDP are derived from data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their monthly releases of the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index, and the Import-Export Price Index, which did undergo annual revisions to seasonal adjustment data in January, which the BLS does every year, and i have noted inordinately large revisions to seasonal adjustments this year, not just for prices, but also for other economic metrics, including most notably employment..

to compute seasonal adjustments, agencies take several years of historical data on each metric and come up with average on how much the data should be expected to change each month, after also taking into account other factors such as holidays and weekends in each month, and then adjust the current month’s data to account for that typical month over month change…the result of the adjustment is supposed to give us a representation of how much the data would have changed after eliminating seasonal influences; for instance, if retail sales are normally expected to fall 20% from December to January based on the normal end of Christmas shopping, and they only fell 18%, then the post adjustment figures would show seasonally adjusted sales rose 2%…

hence, to compute this year's revisions to seasonal adjustments, the historical data being used now includes almost two years of data that has been impacted by the pandemic, and that adjustment is being applied to new data as if all the impacts were due to seasonal changes...the result is that most data from months when the pandemic has been severe, ie, generally November through February, has been revised upward, or reported higher, whereas data from the months when the pandemic has historically ebbed, ie, May, June, and July, is being revised lower, and thus i expect those months will be reported lower going forward...similarly, the supply chain shortages that arose in the wake of the pandemic certainly had an inordinately large impact on prices that would have been incorporated into the seasonal adjustments that certainly weren't seasonal in nature....but i can't see any easy fix to that problem; how one could separate out the impacts of the pandemic from those due to real seasonal factors; ie, how could one tell whether people shopped less in January because of Covid, or because of the bad weather? 

it appears that despite the large revisions to the GDP deflators that accompanied this month's report, the overall revision to GDP from the advance estimate to this second estimate was in the range that we'd consider normal...the most likely reason for that seems to be that not only did the price factors undergo a seasonal adjustment revision, but at least some of the underlying data also did as well, which would probably be in a similar direction and magnitude to the deflator revisions...that would have a mitigating effect on the deflator related revisions, and vice versa; ie,, this month's upward revision to the growth rate of seasonally adjusted current dollar GDP from 14.33% in the advance estimate to 14.64% in this estimate was partly offset by the upward revision in the GDP deflator from 6.9% to 7.1%...

Personal Income Flat in January, Personal Spending up 2.1%, PCE Price Index up 0.6%, Savings Rate at a 8 Year Low

The January report on Personal Income and Outlays from the Bureau of Economic Analysis includes the month's data for our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts almost 70% of the month's GDP, and with it the PCE price index, the inflation gauge the Fed targets, and which is used to adjust that personal spending data for inflation to give us the relative change in the output of goods and services that our spending indicated...in addition, this release reports our personal income data, disposable personal income, which is income after taxes, and our monthly savings rate...however, because this report feeds in to GDP and other national accounts data, the change reported for each of those metrics is not the current monthly change; rather, they're reporting seasonally adjusted amounts expressed at an annual rate, ie, they tell us how much income and spending would change over a year if January's change in seasonally adjusted income and spending were extrapolated over an entire year...however, the percentage changes are computed monthly, from one month's annualized figure to the next, and in this case of this month's report they give us the percentage change in each annualized metric from December to January..

Hence, when the opening line of the news release for this report tell us "Personal income increased $9.0 billion (less than 0.1 percent) in January ", they mean that the annualized figure for seasonally adjusted personal income in January, $21,043.6 billion, was $9.0 billion higher, or less than 0.1% higher than the annualized personal income figure of $21,034.6 billion extrapolated for December; the actual, unadjusted monthly change in personal income from December to January is not given...at the same time, annualized disposable personal income, which is income after taxes, rose by more than 0.1%, from an annual rate of $18,256.4 billion in December to an annual rate of $18,276.3 billion in January...the monthly contributors to the change in personal income, which can be viewed in detail in the Full Release & Tables (PDF) for this release, are also annualized...in January, there was just a $9.0 billion annual rate of increase in personal income because there was $51.9 billion annual rate of decrease in personal current transfer programs, due to a decrease of $133.4 billion annualized from "other" government social benefit programs, which in turn was offset by a $68.5 billion annualized increase in social security benefits, in addition to a $49.9 billion annual rate of increase in income from wages and salaries, while interest and dividend income saw an increase at a $9.5 billion annual rate...

For the January personal consumption expenditures (PCE) that will be included in 1st quarter GDP, BEA reports that they increased at an annual rate of $337.2 billion, or by 2.1%, from a $16,278.8 billion annual rate in December to a $16,616.0 billion annual rate in January; at the same time, the December PCE figure was revised down from the originally reported $16,306.3 billion annual rate, while November PCE was revised from $16,401.5 billion to $16,409.7 billion, revisions that were already incorporated into this week's 4th quarter GDP estimate (this report, although usually released a business day later than the GDP release, is computed concurrently)....total personal outlays, which includes interest payments and personal transfer payments in addition to PCE, rose by an annualized $348.7 billion to a $17,105.4 billion annual rate in January, which left total personal savings, which is disposable personal income less total outlays, at a $1,170.9 billion annual rate in January, down from the revised $1,493.2 billion in annualized personal savings in December... as a result, the personal saving rate, which is personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income, fell to 6.4% in January, down from the December savings rate of 8.2%, andthe lowest personal savings rate since December 2013..

As you know, before January's personal consumption expenditures can be used in the 1st quarter GDP computation, they must first be adjusted for inflation to give us the real change in consumption, and hence the real change in goods and services that were produced for that consumption....that's done with the price index for personal consumption expenditures, which is shown in Table 9 in the pdf for this report, which is a chained price index based on 2012 prices = 100....that PCE price index rose from 118.717 in December to 119.393 in January, giving us a month over month PCE inflation rate of 0.56942%, which BEA rounds to a 0.6% increase in reporting it in the text and tables here....then, applying that 0.56942% inflation adjustment to the increase in January PCE shows that real PCE rose by 1.4935% in January, which the BEA reports as a 1.5% increase...note that when those PCE price indexes are applied to a given month's annualized PCE in current dollars, it gives us that month's annualized real PCE in those same chained 2012 dollars, which are the means that the BEA uses to compare one month's or one quarter's real goods and services produced to that of another....that result is shown in table 7 of the pi PDF, where we see that January's chained dollar consumption total works out to $13,918.9 billion annually, 1.4934% more than December's $13,714.1 billion, statistically the same as the real PCE increase we just computed…

However, to estimate the impact of the change in January PCE on the change in GDP, the change from December doesn't help us much, since GDP is reported on a quarterly basis...thus we have to compare January's real PCE to the the real PCE of the 3 months of the fourth quarter....while this report shows PCE for all those amounts monthly, the BEA also provides the quarterly annualized chained dollar PCE for those three months in table 8 in this report, where we find that the annualized real PCE for the 4th quarter was represented by 13,836.7 billion in chained 2012 dollars..(ie, that's the same as what's shown in table 3 of the pdf for the 4th quarter GDP report)....when we compare January's real PCE representation of 13,918.9 billion to the 4th quarter real PCE figure of 13,836.7 billion, we find that real PCE is growing at a 2.40% annual rate so far in the 1st quarter....that’s a rate that means that even if January's real PCE does not improve during February and March, growth in PCE would still add 1.67 percentage points to the growth rate of 1st quarter GDP...

January Durable Goods: New Orders up 1.6%, Shipments Up 1.2%, Inventories Up 0.4%

The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for January(pdf) from the Census Bureau reported that the value of the widely watched new orders for manufactured durable goods rose by $4.3 billion or 1.6 percent to $277.5 in January, the eighth increase in nine months, which was also 16.5% greater than the value of new orders in January 2021... at the same time, December's new orders were revised from the $267.6 billion reported last month to $273.2 billion, now indicated to be 1.2% greater than November's new orders, revised from the 0.9% decrease previously reported....

The volatile monthly new orders for transportation equipment led the January new orders increase, as new transportation equipment orders rose $2.9 billion or 3.4 percent to $87.6 billion, on a 15.6% increase to $20,182 million in the value of new orders for commercial aircraft, even as the value of new orders for defense aircraft fell 41.1% to $2,439 million....excluding orders for transportation equipment, other new orders rose 0.7%, while excluding just new orders for defense equipment, new orders rose 1.6%....at the same time, new orders for nondefense capital goods less aircraft, a proxy for equipment investment, rose $713 million or 0.9% to $79,986 million...

Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted value of January shipments of durable goods, which will be included as inputs into various components of 1st quarter GDP after adjusting for changes in prices, increased in value by $3.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $270.4 billion, also the eighth increase in nine months, after the value of December shipments was revised from from $266.0 billion to $267.3 billion, now up 1.3% from November....an increase in the value of shipments of machinery led the January shipments increase, as machinery shipments rose $1.0 billion or 2.7 percent to $38.9 billion, while shipments of transportation equipment rose just 0.3% due to a 0.7% decrease in shipments of motor vehicles....however, with the machinery contribution, the value of shipments of nondefense capital goods less aircraft rose 1.9% to $79,070 million, after the value of December’s shipments of capital goods was revised from $77,349 million to $77,591 million, now 1.6% higher than November...

At the same time, the value of seasonally adjusted inventories of durable goods, also a major GDP contributor, rose by $1.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $476.0 bi billion, after the value of December inventories was revised from $473.6 billion to $474.1 billion, now up 0.8% from November....greater inventories of machinery led the January increase, rising $0.7 billion or 0.9 percent to $79.4 billion, while the value of inventories of transportation equipment fell $166 million or 0.1 percent to $154.1 billion...

Finally, unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods, which are probably a better measure of industry conditions than the widely watched but quite volatile monthly new orders, rose for the twelfth consecutive month, increasing by $11.4 billion or 0.9 percent to $1,283.2 billion...that increase followed a 0.8% December increase of $2,247 million to $1,071,554 million which was previously reported as a 0.5% increase to $1,267.5 billion...a $9.6 billion or 1.1 percent increase to $848.8 billion in the value of unfilled orders for transportation equipment led January the increase, while the value of unfilled orders other than those for transportation equipment orders were up 0,4% to $434,456 million...the unfilled order book for durable goods is now 8.7% above the level of last January, with unfilled orders for transportation equipment 6.0% above their year ago level, led by a 9.2% increase in the backlog of orders for commercial aircraft...

NB: for those who are interested in seeing graphs relating to this release, FRED at the St Louis Fed offers graphs of 445 different durable goods data sets...to change what is displayed on any graph, (ie, dollars, percent, etc) click the edit button and then click the edit line 1 tab and make your selection from the units menu...to change the displayed line graph into a bar graph, click the edit button and then click the format tab...

January’s New Home Sales Reported Lower After Prior Months were Revised Higher: Average Price a Record $496,900

The Census report on New Residential Sales for January (pdf) estimated that new single family homes were selling at a seasonally adjusted pace of 800,000 homes annually in January, which was 4.5 percent (±16.2 percent)* below the revised December annual sales rate of 839,000, and 19.3 percent (±15.2 percent) below the estimated 993,000 annual rate that new single family homes were selling at in January of last year....the asterisks indicate that based on their small sampling, Census could not be certain whether January new home sales rose or fell from those of December, with the figures in parenthesis representing the 90% confidence range for reported data in this report, which has the largest margin of error and is subject to the largest revisions of any census construction series....with this report; sales of new single family homes in December were revised from the annual rate of 811,000 reported a month ago to an annual rate of 839,000, while new home sales in November, initially reported at an annual rate of 744,000 and revised to a 725,000 rate with the last report, were revised back up to a 749,000 a year rate with this report, and while October's new home sales rate, initially reported at an annual rate of 745,000 and revised from a 662,000 to a 649,000 a year rate last month, were again revised to a 667,000 rate with this release..

The annual rates of sales reported here are seasonally adjusted after extrapolation from the estimates of canvassing Census field reps, which indicated that approximately 64,000 new single family homes sold in January, up from the estimated 59,000 new homes that sold in December and the 53,000 that sold in November....the raw numbers from Census field agents further estimated that the median sales price of new houses sold in January was $423,300, up from the median sale price of $395,500 in December and up from the median sales price of $373,200 in January a year ago, while the average January new home sales price was at a record $496,900, up from the $482,300 average sales price in December, and up from the average sales price of $418,600 in January a year ago....a seasonally adjusted estimate of 406,000 new single family houses remained for sale at the end of January, which represents a 6.1 month supply at the January sales rate, up from the revised 5.6 months of new home supply now indicated for December....for graphs and additional commentary on this report, see the following two posts by Bill McBride at Calculated Risk: New Home Sales decrease to 801,000 Annual Rate in January and January New Home Sales: Record 106 thousand Homes Have Not been Started, which in turn links to his real estate newsletter post with the same title...

 

(the above is the synopsis that accompanied my regular sunday morning links emailing, which in turn was mostly selected from my weekly blog post on the global glass onion…if you’d be interested in receiving my weekly emailing of selected links, most of which are picked from the aforementioned GGO posts, contact me…)  

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